The Ledger

Markets. Income. Risk. Opportunity.

An investor memo from The Freedom Arch covering macro, options income, portfolio strategy, risk management, and the setups I’m watching.

Not financial advice.

August 31, 2026

Opening Note

August was another strong month for portfolio income.

Total income came in at $28,509, made up of $19,658 in options income, $7,316 in dividends and distributions, and $1,535 in cash yield.

That is actually more income than July, but the same principle still applies: the number matters less to me than how it was generated.

The entire point of building this portfolio the way I have is that I do not want one income source carrying the entire load every month. Options income will fluctuate. Dividend distributions are uneven throughout the year. Cash yields will change with interest rates. Market opportunities come and go.

But when all three are working together, the portfolio becomes much less dependent on any one decision.

That is the system.

I am not trying to maximize premium every month. Depending on market structure, some months will set up much better than others. I am trying to generate meaningful cash flow while maintaining liquidity, managing assignment risk, and continuing to build toward the larger goal of freedom.

August was another good example of what that can look like.

Where the Options Income Came From

August was a little different than July.

July's income was heavily influenced by a few large, high-conviction December put positions opened during the late-June market weakness. August was more about allowing those positions to work while continuing to selectively add premium where the risk/reward made sense. These included $MSTR, $BE, $MRVL, $AMZN, and $SMH.

One of the biggest mistakes I think premium sellers make is assuming that because they generated $15,000 or $20,000 one month, they need to immediately recreate that number the next month.

I do not manage the portfolio that way.

When volatility expands and a company I want to own sells off, I am willing to get much more aggressive. When volatility contracts and stocks become extended, I am perfectly comfortable doing less.

August still produced $19,658 of options income, but I did not need to manufacture activity just to get there.

A meaningful portion of the options book remains concentrated in names and indexes I know extremely well, including QQQ and several large-cap technology companies, while I continue to use longer-dated positions when I think they give me a better combination of premium, strike selection, and time to manage the trade.

The goal remains the same: Sell volatility when you’re being compensated for taking the risk not because you need another the income.

What Worked in August

Patience continued to pay. One of the better decisions during August was simply allowing positions to work. I had already created a lot of exposure during previous market weakness. There was no reason to immediately replace every closed trade when the market moved higher. Sometimes the highest-quality position is the one you already own.

Cash continued doing its job, especially as I went into August knowing there was a lot happening under the surface and it wasn’t time to be aggressive. Cash yield contributed another $1,535 during August.

That will never be the exciting part of the portfolio, but I continue to think it is one of the most misunderstood. Most of my cash is sitting in $SWVXX, where it earns yield while also functioning as collateral for the puts I sell. That means the same capital is providing liquidity, generating interest income, and giving me the flexibility to take advantage of volatility when it eventually returns. I do not view that as cash sitting on the sidelines. I view it as productive dry powder that is actually working overtime.

Portfolio income continued to build the floor Dividends and distributions contributed another $7,316. This continues to be one of the most important pieces of the system because it requires almost no new decision-making from me. No strike selection. No expiration. No rolling. No deciding whether volatility is high enough. It simply keeps paying no matter what the market is doing.

My long-term goal of getting this to $100,000 per year in distributions looks like it’s going to be attainable this year.

Where the Market Ended August

August turned out to be much stronger than the historical calendar would have suggested.

The S&P 500 gained approximately 2.6%, while the Nasdaq rose about 3.9%. The Dow added roughly 1.3%, and the major U.S. indexes all finished the month higher despite weakness during the final few sessions.

That is important because August historically has not been a particularly strong month.

Instead of seeing the seasonal weakness begin, the market continued higher. But underneath the headline returns, the backdrop changed.

Oil moved sharply higher again late in the month as tensions involving Iran escalated. Brent finished above $90, while the 10-year Treasury yield pushed back toward 4.75%, its highest area since early 2025. At the same time, markets increased the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

So my read entering September is still constructive, but certainly more cautious. The trend has not broken. The market has not given me a reason to become bearish.

But the combination of higher oil, higher yields, elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and historically difficult September seasonality means I do not think this is the time to become careless simply because August was strong.

Index and Risk-Asset Charts

Before getting into individual positions, I wanted to step back and look at the broader risk picture.

The two charts I’m watching most closely are always $SPY and $QQQ, because they give a pretty clean read on the market: broad equities, growth/tech leadership, and risk appetite.

SPY weekly chart: broad trend still constructive, but the index is near highs going into weaker seasonal months. The broader market still looks constructive, but not early. $SPY remains near the upper end of its recent move, which tells me the trend has not broken, but the easy entry may not be right here. When the S&P is still elevated heading into weaker seasonal months, I would rather stay invested and selective than chase aggressively. Look how we just continue to hold the 9ema.

$QQQ is the more important chart for me right now because so much of the market has been driven by mega-cap tech, AI, and growth expectations. The chart still has leadership characteristics, but it is also where I see the most crowding and correlation risk. We still haven’t broken any of the moving averages and we’re literally just consolidating here. Does this chart look bearish to you?

Seasonality: Why August and September Matter

August gave us an important reminder about seasonality: Historical tendencies are context, not trading signals.

Historically, August is roughly flat for the S&P 500. Instead, the S&P gained approximately 2.6%. There was no meaningful seasonal rollover.

No broad risk-off move. No confirmation that the calendar was taking control of the tape.

That is exactly why I will never sell a market simply because a historical chart says it should weaken.

But September is still worth paying attention to.

Historically, September has been the weakest month of the year for U.S. equities. Long-run data show average September declines of roughly 1.1% for the S&P 500 and Dow, with the Nasdaq also historically negative.

And this time, the calendar is not the only thing I am watching.

We are entering that historically weaker period while:

  • Treasury yields are moving higher.

  • Oil has moved back above $90 Brent.

  • Inflation remains a concern.

  • Markets are again pricing a meaningful possibility of another Fed hike.

  • Geopolitical risk has increased.

  • Equity valuations remain elevated.

That convergence is much more meaningful to me than seasonality alone.

Highest Premium and Bullish Options Flow I’m Watching

I continue to pay close attention to options flow, but I do not treat it as a standalone trading signal.

Large options transactions tell me where sophisticated capital is active, but they do not always tell me why. A trade can be directional, part of a spread, or used as a hedge against another position.

Where flow becomes more useful to me is when it lines up with other things I already like: fundamentals, price action, valuation, support levels, or a broader sector theme.

That is why some of the current names stand out more than others.

INTC remains one of the more interesting examples. It has produced some of the strongest positive options flow I have seen this year, which does not eliminate the execution risk in the business, but it does make the positioning hard to ignore. I already have December $65 puts open, so I am not looking to chase the stock higher. I would rather add on weakness if the setup improves.

NVDA continues to be one of the better combinations of institutional demand, AI fundamentals, liquidity, and options activity. MRVL is another name benefiting from continued AI infrastructure spending, although I would treat it as higher risk than NVDA.

AMZN and META remain two of my favorite large-cap names for premium selling, but again, entry matters. I am not interested in forcing trades after strong moves. I would much rather wait for a pullback and sell premium when the market is paying me more.

QQQ remains the core systematic piece of the options-income engine. It is not a single-company flow story, but the liquidity and repeatability make it one of the cleaner places for me to sell low-delta premium when the setup is right.

All of these above I am already holding core option positions around.

September Watchlist and Playbook

For September, I want to remain active, but I do not feel any need to be fully deployed.

August proved that the market can ignore the seasonal script. September may do the same.

The difference is that the backdrop feels a little less forgiving now. Rates are higher, oil is stronger, geopolitical risk has increased, and indexes are still sitting near elevated levels. That makes me much more interested in reacting to volatility than trying to predict exactly when it will show up.

INTC has replaced MSFT on the active watchlist because of the extremely positive options flow and the fact that I already have December $65 puts open.

HOOD is also back on the board. Bitcoin bounced strongly during August, which is supportive for crypto-related trading activity and should be a positive backdrop for HOOD. Even so, HOOD is still a name where entry price matters a lot to me. I would much rather see the stock pull back under $100 before reopening the longer-dated LEAP put structure around the $65 level.

That is the kind of setup I am willing to wait for. If it takes a month, that is fine. If it takes three months, that is also fine.

Positioning Rules for August

My positioning rules are not changing dramatically, but I am tightening them slightly.

I still prefer roughly 42 to 50 DTE in many cases, or farther-dated expirations when I think the extra time gives me a better strike and a cleaner risk profile. I will continue reducing or closing positions around 20 to 21 DTE when the trade has already done most of the work or when I have captured roughly 70% or more of the premium.

I also continue to size positions based on assignment notional rather than the broker’s buying-power requirement. That is still one of the easiest ways to avoid fooling yourself about how much risk you are actually carrying.

Correlation remains another big focus. I do not want too much exposure stacked across QQQ, AI, semiconductors, mega-cap technology, HOOD, and Bitcoin at the same time. Those can look like separate trades right up until the market decides they are all the same trade. This is how I got burned early this year when I was holding way too much $MSTR. Things would have worked out, but, I took on unnecessary risk that I haven’t done in year.

Most importantly, I want to preserve enough liquidity that if the Nasdaq pulls back sharply, I am choosing what to do rather than being forced into a roll or adjustment because the book is overextended.

Risk Notes

The biggest change entering September is that several risks are starting to overlap.

Geopolitical risk remains the most obvious one. The Iran conflict moved directly back into the market at the end of August and pushed oil prices higher again. That matters because higher oil does not just affect Energy stocks. It can feed into inflation expectations, consumer spending, transportation costs, and ultimately Fed policy.

The second risk is interest rates. The 10-year Treasury moved back toward the 4.75% area, and the market has become more open to the idea that the Fed may still need to tighten further. That is a much different backdrop than a rally being supported by steadily falling yields.

I do not think higher rates automatically break the bull market, but they make expensive assets less forgiving. If the 10-year starts pushing sustainably toward 5%, I think that becomes much more important than the usual discussion around seasonal weakness.

AI concentration remains another area I am watching closely. The AI story did not break in August. If anything, software recovered, semiconductors remained strong, and demand for data-center infrastructure continues to support the theme.

What I continue to question is how much of that spending ultimately turns into durable profits. I remain bullish on the technology, but I am less convinced that every company receiving an AI valuation deserves one. That distinction matters.

Bitcoin also remains an important part of the risk picture. The rebound in August was significant and helps support names like HOOD, MSTR, and COIN, but the volatility is still enormous. There was a few times I stopped myself from trying to put the full $MSTR trade back on.

The more Bitcoin becomes integrated into ETFs, institutions, regulated custody, and traditional portfolio construction, the more I think it will increasingly trade alongside broader liquidity and risk conditions. That does not make it less interesting. It just means I do not want to assume it will always behave independently from the rest of the financial system.

Overall, I would still describe my posture as optimistically skeptical. I want to stay invested and continue generating income, but I do not want the portfolio positioned as though oil must fall, yields must fall, AI must outperform, and the Fed must become more accommodative all at once.

That is where strong markets can eventually create bad positioning. Current prices still appear to assume that the Fed does not need to tighten much more, the labor market slows without collapsing, inflation continues improving, oil does not remain significantly above current levels, and the Iran conflict does not create a prolonged disruption to global energy supply.

At the same time, the market is also assuming the 10-year Treasury does not move sustainably above 5%, AI capital spending continues converting into real earnings growth, corporate profits remain strong enough to support elevated valuations, credit losses stay contained, and the consumer continues spending despite higher borrowing and energy costs.

None of those assumptions are unreasonable on their own. The risk is that several of them start breaking at the same time.

That is where the margin for error becomes much smaller when combined with seasonality.

Closing Thought

August was another reminder that I do not need the market to behave exactly the way I expect in order for the system to work.

Seasonality suggested caution, but the market went higher anyway. Options income still generated $19,658, dividends and distributions added another $7,316, and cash quietly produced $1,535.

That brought total portfolio income to $28,509.

That is exactly why I continue building multiple income streams instead of trying to predict every market move.

Some months options will carry more of the load. Some months dividends will. There will also be months when the smartest thing I can do is keep more cash available and wait for better opportunities.

The goal is not to produce the exact same income every month. The goal is to continue building a portfolio that can produce cash flow through different market environments without requiring me to make one perfect decision after another.

September may finally give us the volatility that August did not. Even with the catalysts mentioned above, the $VIX has barely moved. Or the market may ignore seasonality again and continue higher.

Either outcome is manageable.

I still have cash working in the background, positions I am comfortable owning, premium decaying, and dividends coming in. More importantly, I know what I want to do if volatility returns.

That is increasingly what financial freedom means to me. Not knowing exactly what happens next, but building a system where I do not need to.

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